Ball State’s points of margin with Tyler Mizzell and without Tyler Mizzell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 15.1 points under with Tyler Mizzell and 3.2 points under without Tyler Mizzell over its last 25 games, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are -13.0 and -13.3, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 25.7 points higher with Tyler Mizzell than without Tyler Mizzell. All 3 home games were without Tyler Mizzell. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Tyler Mizzell. All 4 nonconference games were without Tyler Mizzell.
Tyler Mizzell, quarterback: 260 passing yards, 38 pass attempts and 23 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
One game with Tyler Mizzell is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Tyler Mizzell
−15.1
without Tyler Mizzell
−3.2
-100
plain
-13.0
-13.3
-40-20020
The games
with Tyler Mizzellwithout Tyler Mizzell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 2 | -14.4 | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -6 | -15.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Buffalo | L | -3 | -14.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | L | -25 | -10.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ohio | L | -21 | -22.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Purdue | L | -31 | -19.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | -39 | -30.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs New Hampshire | W | 5 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UConn | L | -6 | -18.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsOhio | W | 6 | -17.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | L | -42 | -17.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 14 | 1.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Northern Illinois | L | -14 | -6.7 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 4 | 0.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | -15 | -0.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | -29 | -26.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Miami (OH) | L | -21 | -14.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | -53 | -38.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | -36 | -29.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Kent State | L | -13 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsToledo | L | -15 | -8.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | -31 | -36.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Bowling Green | W | 1 | -5.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 17 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Tyler Mizzell nor without Tyler Mizzell: Tyler Mizzell had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.