Ball State’s points of margin with Tyler Mizzell and without Tyler Mizzell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 15.1 points under with Tyler Mizzell and 3.2 points under without Tyler Mizzell in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are -13.0 and -13.3, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 25.7 points higher with Tyler Mizzell than without Tyler Mizzell. All 3 home games were without Tyler Mizzell. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Tyler Mizzell. All 4 nonconference games were without Tyler Mizzell.
Tyler Mizzell, quarterback: 260 passing yards, 38 pass attempts and 23 completions in 6 games this season.
One game with Tyler Mizzell is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Tyler Mizzell
−15.1
without Tyler Mizzell
−3.2
-100
plain
-13.0
-13.3
-40-20020
The games
with Tyler Mizzellwithout Tyler Mizzell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | -53 | -38.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | -36 | -29.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | -13 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | -15 | -8.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | -31 | -36.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 1 | -5.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 17 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.