Ball State’s points of margin with Keldric Luster and without Keldric Luster
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 3.2 points under with Keldric Luster and 15.1 points under without Keldric Luster over its last 25 games, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are -13.3 and -13.0, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 25.7 points lower with Keldric Luster than without Keldric Luster. All 3 home games were with Keldric Luster. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Keldric Luster. All 4 nonconference games were with Keldric Luster.
Keldric Luster, quarterback: 1,300 passing yards, 211 pass attempts and 133 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Keldric Luster is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Keldric Luster
−3.2
without Keldric Luster
−15.1
-100
plain
-13.3
-13.0
-40-20020
The games
with Keldric Lusterwithout Keldric Luster
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 2 | -14.4 | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -6 | -15.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Buffalo | L | -3 | -14.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | L | -25 | -10.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ohio | L | -21 | -22.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Purdue | L | -31 | -19.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | -39 | -30.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs New Hampshire | W | 5 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UConn | L | -6 | -18.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsOhio | W | 6 | -17.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | L | -42 | -17.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 14 | 1.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Northern Illinois | L | -14 | -6.7 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 4 | 0.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | -15 | -0.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | -29 | -26.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Miami (OH) | L | -21 | -14.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | -53 | -38.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | -36 | -29.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Kent State | L | -13 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsToledo | L | -15 | -8.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | -31 | -36.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Bowling Green | W | 1 | -5.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 17 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Keldric Luster nor without Keldric Luster: Keldric Luster had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.