Ball State’s points of margin with Jalen Bonds and without Jalen Bonds
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 7.5 points under with Jalen Bonds and 0.1 points under without Jalen Bonds over its last 25 games, 7 games against 10. The plain averages are -13.9 and -13.5, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 0.9 points lower with Jalen Bonds than without Jalen Bonds.
Jalen Bonds, running back: 301 rushing yards, 74 carries and 12 receptions in 9 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jalen Bonds
−7.5
without Jalen Bonds
−0.1
-20020
A −7.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Jalen Bonds vs without Jalen Bonds is about what you’d expect.
plain
-13.9
-13.5
-40-20020
A −0.3 difference in points of margin with Jalen Bonds vs without Jalen Bonds is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jalen Bondswithout Jalen Bonds
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 2 | -14.4 | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -6 | -15.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Buffalo | L | -3 | -14.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | L | -25 | -10.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ohio | L | -21 | -22.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Purdue | L | -31 | -19.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | -39 | -30.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs New Hampshire | W | 5 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UConn | L | -6 | -18.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsOhio | W | 6 | -17.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | L | -42 | -17.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 14 | 1.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Northern Illinois | L | -14 | -6.7 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 4 | 0.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | -15 | -0.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | -29 | -26.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Miami (OH) | L | -21 | -14.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | -53 | -38.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | -36 | -29.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Kent State | L | -13 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsToledo | L | -15 | -8.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | -31 | -36.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Bowling Green | W | 1 | -5.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 17 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- New Hampshire, Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Jalen Bonds nor without Jalen Bonds: Jalen Bonds had no game for the team that season, and sit out.