Ball State’s points of margin with Jalen Bonds and without Jalen Bonds
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 7.5 points under with Jalen Bonds and 0.5 points under without Jalen Bonds in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are -10.0 and -23.0, a difference of 13.0. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jalen Bonds. All 4 first-half games were with Jalen Bonds.
Jalen Bonds, running back: 224 rushing yards, 47 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Jalen Bonds is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −7.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Jalen Bonds vs without Jalen Bonds is about what you’d expect.
A +13.0 difference in points of margin with Jalen Bonds vs without Jalen Bonds is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | -53 | -38.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | -36 | -29.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | -13 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | -15 | -8.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | -31 | -36.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 1 | -5.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 17 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.