Ball State’s carries with Tyler Mizzell and without Tyler Mizzell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 5.6 carries under with Tyler Mizzell and 1.0 carries under without Tyler Mizzell in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 27.0 and 33.0, a difference of 6.0. All 3 home games were without Tyler Mizzell. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Tyler Mizzell. All 4 nonconference games were without Tyler Mizzell.
Tyler Mizzell, quarterback: 260 passing yards, 38 pass attempts and 23 completions in 6 games this season, 11% of Ball State’s carries in those games.
One game with Tyler Mizzell is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Tyler Mizzell
−5.6
without Tyler Mizzell
−1.0
-10-505
plain
27.0
33.0
25303540
The games
with Tyler Mizzellwithout Tyler Mizzell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 22 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 34 | 29.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 27 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 27 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 31 | 29.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 42 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 41 | — | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @ UMass | L | — | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State, UMass have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.