Ball State’s carries with Keldric Luster and without Keldric Luster
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 1.0 carries under with Keldric Luster and 5.5 carries under without Keldric Luster in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.0 and 27.0, a difference of 6.0. All 3 home games were with Keldric Luster. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Keldric Luster. All 4 nonconference games were with Keldric Luster.
Keldric Luster, quarterback: 1,300 passing yards, 211 pass attempts and 133 completions in 7 games this season, 29% of Ball State’s carries in those games.
One game without Keldric Luster is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Keldric Luster
−1.0
without Keldric Luster
−5.5
-10-505
plain
33.0
27.0
25303540
The games
with Keldric Lusterwithout Keldric Luster
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 22 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 34 | 29.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 27 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 27 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 31 | 29.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 42 | 33.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 41 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.