Ball State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 4.5 points under at home and 2.9 points under away in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 33.0 and 15.4, a difference of 17.6. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−4.5
away
−2.9
-100
plain
33.0
15.4
10203040
A +17.6 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 3 | 12.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 15 | 12.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 13 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 24 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 14 | 14.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 32 | 24.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 34 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.