Arkansas State’s third-down conversion rate with Kenyon Clay and without Kenyon Clay
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arkansas State was 0.0 percentage points over with Kenyon Clay and 1.4 percentage points over without Kenyon Clay over its last 25 games, 17 games against 2. The plain averages are 40.2% and 43.6%, a difference of 3.3%. Expected was 3.6 percentage points lower with Kenyon Clay than without Kenyon Clay. Both neutral-site games were with Kenyon Clay. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Kenyon Clay. All 3 games after a bye were with Kenyon Clay.
Kenyon Clay, running back: 744 rushing yards, 191 carries and 47 receptions in 19 of those 25 games.
2 games without Kenyon Clay is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −1.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is about what you’d expect.
A −3.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Georgia State | W | 30.8% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 33.3% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Old Dominion | L | 53.3% | 40.0% | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Bowling Green (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 35.9% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsSSoutheast Missouri State | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arkansas (neutral) | L | 52.6% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Iowa State | L | 43.8% | 33.2% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Kennesaw State | L | 26.7% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Louisiana Monroe | L | 20.0% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 42.9% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 23.5% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 61.1% | 41.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Troy | W | 30.8% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | L | 60.0% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Louisiana | L | 26.7% | 40.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Appalachian State | W | 41.2% | 39.3% | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Missouri State (neutral) | W | 18.2% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 50.0% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 35.7% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsKennesaw State | W | 41.7% | 45.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Louisiana | L | 45.5% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsSouth Alabama | L | 80.0% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Southern Miss | W | 23.5% | 46.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsGeorgia State | W | 20.0% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southeast Missouri State, West Georgia have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Kenyon Clay nor without Kenyon Clay: Kenyon Clay had no game for the team that season, and sit out.