Arkansas State’s third-down conversion rate with Kenyon Clay and without Kenyon Clay
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arkansas State was 2.1 percentage points over with Kenyon Clay and 1.4 percentage points over without Kenyon Clay in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 45.3% and 43.6%, a difference of 1.7%. Expected was 2.4 percentage points lower with Kenyon Clay than without Kenyon Clay.
Kenyon Clay, running back: 221 rushing yards, 52 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Kenyon Clay is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +0.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is about what you’d expect.
A +1.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 50.0% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 35.7% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 41.7% | 45.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Louisiana | L | 45.5% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs South Alabama | L | 80.0% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | W | 23.5% | 46.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 20.0% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.