Arkansas State’s rushing yards with Kenyon Clay and without Kenyon Clay
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arkansas State was 8.8 yards under with Kenyon Clay and 21.5 yards under without Kenyon Clay in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 149.0 and 107.0, a difference of 42.0.
Kenyon Clay, running back: 221 rushing yards, 52 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season, 25% of Arkansas State’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without Kenyon Clay is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Kenyon Clay
−8.8
without Kenyon Clay
−21.5
-50050
A +12.7 difference in rushing yards over expected with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is about what you’d expect.
plain
149.0
107.0
100150200250
A +42.0 difference in rushing yards with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Kenyon Claywithout Kenyon Clay
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 110 | 144.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 256 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 128 | 61.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 127 | 136.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Louisiana | L | 87 | 120.8 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs South Alabama | L | 98 | 159.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | W | 138 | 184.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 164 | 132.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.