Arkansas State’s points of margin with Kenyon Clay and without Kenyon Clay
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arkansas State was 2.3 points under with Kenyon Clay and 2.2 points over without Kenyon Clay in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 2.0 and 0.0, a difference of 2.0. Expected was 2.1 points lower with Kenyon Clay than without Kenyon Clay.
Kenyon Clay, running back: 221 rushing yards, 52 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Kenyon Clay is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −4.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is about what you’d expect.
A +2.0 difference in points of margin with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | -18 | -14.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ TCU | L | -24 | -15.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 3 | 7.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Louisiana | L | -3 | -11.5 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs South Alabama | L | -7 | 6.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | W | 10 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 6 | 0.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.