Arkansas State’s carries with Kenyon Clay and without Kenyon Clay
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arkansas State was 0.4 carries over with Kenyon Clay and 6.5 carries under without Kenyon Clay in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 34.3 and 26.0, a difference of 8.3.
Kenyon Clay, running back: 221 rushing yards, 52 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season, 25% of Arkansas State’s carries in those games.
2 games without Kenyon Clay is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +6.9 difference in carries over expected with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kenyon Clay and it comes up 19 times in 100.
A +8.3 difference in carries with Kenyon Clay vs without Kenyon Clay is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 28 | 33.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 30 | 29.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 29 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Louisiana | L | 23 | 30.0 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs South Alabama | L | 27 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | W | 49 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 32 | 32.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.