Arkansas State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arkansas State was 4.8 points over at home and 4.1 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 39.0 and 18.5, a difference of 20.5. Both day games were away.
points a game over expected
at home
+4.8
away
−4.1
-10010
A +8.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
39.0
18.5
2040
A +20.5 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 24 | 22.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWest Georgia | W | 52 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 7 | 12.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 17 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Louisiana | L | 20 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs South Alabama | L | 49 | 30.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | W | 23 | 33.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 38 | 28.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- West Georgia has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.