Putting Up Numbers· college football

Arizona’s total yards with Antwan Roberts Jr. and without Antwan Roberts Jr.

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona was 30.2 yards over with Antwan Roberts Jr. and 17.0 yards under without Antwan Roberts Jr. over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 476.0 and 327.0, a difference of 149.0. All 4 home games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 3 night games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 6 unranked opponents were with Antwan Roberts Jr..

Antwan Roberts Jr., running back: 263 rushing yards, 39 carries and 1 reception in 7 of those 25 games.

One game without Antwan Roberts Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Antwan Roberts Jr.without Antwan Roberts Jr.
Arizona’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Antwan Roberts Jr. or without Antwan Roberts Jr.
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Nov 2, 2024@UCFL261359.5
Nov 15, 2024vsHoustonW341323.8
Nov 23, 2024@TCUL326349.4
Nov 30, 2024vsArizona StateL210345.3
Aug 30, 2025vsHawaiiW346431.9
Sep 6, 2025vsWWeber StateW557—
Sep 12, 2025vsKansas StateW415392.2
Sep 27, 2025@Iowa StateL360382.6
Oct 4, 2025vsOklahoma StateW479404.4
Oct 11, 2025vsBYUL384348.8
Oct 18, 2025@HoustonL381376.8
Nov 1, 2025@ColoradoW417409.6
Nov 8, 2025vsKansasW323428.0
Nov 15, 2025@CincinnatiW477405.9
Nov 22, 2025vsBaylorW355411.2
Nov 28, 2025@Arizona StateW387328.8
Jan 2, 2026vsSMU (neutral)L441398.8
Sep 5, 2026vsNorthern ArizonaW520—
Sep 12, 2026@BYUL327344.0
Sep 19, 2026vsNorthern IllinoisW443493.5
Sep 26, 2026@Washington StateW451408.6
Oct 3, 2026vsCincinnatiW522449.4
Oct 10, 2026@West VirginiaW487482.3
Oct 24, 2026vsIowa StateW479401.1
Oct 31, 2026@Texas TechL430396.0

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Northern Arizona has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Antwan Roberts Jr. nor without Antwan Roberts Jr.: Antwan Roberts Jr. had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.