Arizona’s third-down conversion rate with Ismail Mahdi and without Ismail Mahdi
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona was 2.8 percentage points over with Ismail Mahdi and 3.8 percentage points over without Ismail Mahdi over its last 25 games, 14 games against 5. The plain averages are 43.8% and 49.0%, a difference of 5.1%.
Ismail Mahdi, running back: 931 rushing yards, 146 carries and 18 receptions in 15 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Ismail Mahdi
+2.8%
without Ismail Mahdi
+3.8%
0%20%
A −1.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ismail Mahdi vs without Ismail Mahdi is about what you’d expect.
plain
43.8%
49.0%
40%60%80%
A −5.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ismail Mahdi vs without Ismail Mahdi is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Ismail Mahdiwithout Ismail Mahdi
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UCF | L | 50.0% | 44.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs Houston | W | 58.8% | 38.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ TCU | L | 52.6% | 43.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | 40.0% | 43.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 27.3% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsWWeber State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 44.4% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Iowa State | L | 30.8% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 41.7% | 42.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 23.5% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Houston | L | 44.4% | 39.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Colorado | W | 38.5% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 38.5% | 42.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Baylor | W | 40.0% | 42.1% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Arizona State | W | 50.0% | 35.9% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs SMU (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Arizona | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @BYU | L | 41.7% | 43.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 81.8% | 49.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 46.7% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsCincinnati | W | 64.3% | 45.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 37.5% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 50.0% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 42.1% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Weber State, Northern Arizona have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Ismail Mahdi nor without Ismail Mahdi: Ismail Mahdi had no game for the team that season, and sit out.