Arizona’s third-down conversion rate with Antwan Roberts Jr. and without Antwan Roberts Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona was 9.4 percentage points over with Antwan Roberts Jr. and 2.1 percentage points under without Antwan Roberts Jr. over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 54.4% and 41.7%, a difference of 12.7%. All 4 home games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 3 night games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 6 unranked opponents were with Antwan Roberts Jr..
Antwan Roberts Jr., running back: 263 rushing yards, 39 carries and 1 reception in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Antwan Roberts Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Antwan Roberts Jr.
+9.4%
without Antwan Roberts Jr.
−2.1%
0%10%20%30%
plain
54.4%
41.7%
40%60%80%
The games
with Antwan Roberts Jr.without Antwan Roberts Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UCF | L | 50.0% | 44.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs Houston | W | 58.8% | 38.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ TCU | L | 52.6% | 43.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | 40.0% | 43.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 27.3% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsWWeber State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 44.4% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Iowa State | L | 30.8% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 41.7% | 42.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 23.5% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Houston | L | 44.4% | 39.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Colorado | W | 38.5% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 38.5% | 42.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Baylor | W | 40.0% | 42.1% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Arizona State | W | 50.0% | 35.9% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs SMU (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Arizona | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @BYU | L | 41.7% | 43.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 81.8% | 49.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 46.7% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsCincinnati | W | 64.3% | 45.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 37.5% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 50.0% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 42.1% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Northern Arizona has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Antwan Roberts Jr. nor without Antwan Roberts Jr.: Antwan Roberts Jr. had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.