Arizona’s third-down conversion rate with Antwan Roberts Jr. and without Antwan Roberts Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona was 9.3 percentage points over with Antwan Roberts Jr. and 2.1 percentage points under without Antwan Roberts Jr. in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 54.4% and 41.7%, a difference of 12.7%. All 4 home games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 3 night games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 6 unranked opponents were with Antwan Roberts Jr..
Antwan Roberts Jr., running back: 263 rushing yards, 39 carries and 1 reception in 7 games this season.
One game without Antwan Roberts Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Antwan Roberts Jr.
+9.3%
without Antwan Roberts Jr.
−2.1%
0%10%20%30%
plain
54.4%
41.7%
40%60%80%
The games
with Antwan Roberts Jr.without Antwan Roberts Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Arizona | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ BYU | L | 41.7% | 43.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 81.8% | 50.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 46.7% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Cincinnati | W | 64.3% | 45.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 37.5% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 50.0% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 42.1% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Northern Arizona has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.