Putting Up Numbers· college football

Arizona’s penalty yards with Antwan Roberts Jr. and without Antwan Roberts Jr.

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona was 2.5 yards over with Antwan Roberts Jr. and 1.4 yards over without Antwan Roberts Jr. in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 55.9 and 55.0, a difference of 0.9. Expected was 4.0 yards higher with Antwan Roberts Jr. than without Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 4 home games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 3 night games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 6 unranked opponents were with Antwan Roberts Jr..

Antwan Roberts Jr., running back: 263 rushing yards, 39 carries and 1 reception in 7 games this season.

One game without Antwan Roberts Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

penalty yards a game over expected

The games

with Antwan Roberts Jr.without Antwan Roberts Jr.
Arizona’s games, 2026, each marked with Antwan Roberts Jr. or without Antwan Roberts Jr.
SideDateGameResultpenalty yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsNorthern ArizonaW30—
Sep 12, 2026@BYUL5553.6
Sep 19, 2026vsNorthern IllinoisW5056.9
Sep 26, 2026@Washington StateW6562.0
Oct 3, 2026vsCincinnatiW7052.4
Oct 10, 2026@West VirginiaW7160.5
Oct 24, 2026vsIowa StateW5057.0
Oct 31, 2026@Texas TechL5557.1

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 27% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Northern Arizona has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.