Arizona’s carries with Antwan Roberts Jr. and without Antwan Roberts Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona was 1.4 carries under with Antwan Roberts Jr. and 0.8 carries under without Antwan Roberts Jr. over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.3 and 31.0, a difference of 1.3. Expected was 1.4 carries higher with Antwan Roberts Jr. than without Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 4 home games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 3 night games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 6 unranked opponents were with Antwan Roberts Jr..
Antwan Roberts Jr., running back: 263 rushing yards, 39 carries and 1 reception in 7 of those 25 games, 17% of Arizona’s carries in those games.
One game without Antwan Roberts Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Antwan Roberts Jr.
−1.4
without Antwan Roberts Jr.
−0.8
-100
plain
32.3
31.0
25303540
The games
with Antwan Roberts Jr.without Antwan Roberts Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UCF | L | 25 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs Houston | W | 34 | 28.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ TCU | L | 21 | 33.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | 27 | 25.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 32 | 32.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsWWeber State | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 43 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Iowa State | L | 24 | 32.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 32 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 33 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Houston | L | 31 | 33.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Colorado | W | 38 | 37.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 29 | 35.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | W | 40 | 38.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Baylor | W | 35 | 38.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Arizona State | W | 41 | 29.2 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs SMU (neutral) | L | 36 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Arizona | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @BYU | L | 31 | 31.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 25 | 37.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 36 | 33.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsCincinnati | W | 41 | 32.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 25 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 35 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 29 | 31.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Northern Arizona has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Antwan Roberts Jr. nor without Antwan Roberts Jr.: Antwan Roberts Jr. had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.