Arizona’s carries with Antwan Roberts Jr. and without Antwan Roberts Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona was 1.4 carries under with Antwan Roberts Jr. and 0.8 carries under without Antwan Roberts Jr. in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.3 and 31.0, a difference of 1.3. Expected was 1.4 carries higher with Antwan Roberts Jr. than without Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 4 home games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 3 night games were with Antwan Roberts Jr.. All 6 unranked opponents were with Antwan Roberts Jr..
Antwan Roberts Jr., running back: 263 rushing yards, 39 carries and 1 reception in 7 games this season, 17% of Arizona’s carries in those games.
One game without Antwan Roberts Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Antwan Roberts Jr.
−1.4
without Antwan Roberts Jr.
−0.8
-100
plain
32.3
31.0
25303540
The games
with Antwan Roberts Jr.without Antwan Roberts Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Arizona | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ BYU | L | 31 | 31.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 25 | 37.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 36 | 33.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Cincinnati | W | 41 | 32.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 25 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 35 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 29 | 31.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Northern Arizona has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.