Arizona State’s third-down conversion rate with Cutter Boley and since Cutter Boley’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona State was 8.8 percentage points under with Cutter Boley and 2.5 percentage points under since Cutter Boley’s last game over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 31.0% and 32.6%, a difference of 1.5%. All 3 night games were with Cutter Boley. All 3 nonconference games were with Cutter Boley.
Cutter Boley, quarterback: 1,360 passing yards, 173 pass attempts and 105 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
3 games since Cutter Boley’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −6.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Cutter Boley vs since Cutter Boley’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −1.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Cutter Boley vs since Cutter Boley’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs BYU | W | 53.8% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Arizona | W | 33.3% | 45.0% | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | W | 41.7% | 41.0% | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 41.7% | 38.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Northern Arizona | W | 20.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | L | 21.4% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 38.5% | 41.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Baylor | W | 37.5% | 37.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs TCU | W | 31.3% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Utah | L | 38.9% | 32.2% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Texas Tech | W | 42.9% | 29.5% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 33.3% | 37.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Iowa State | W | 33.3% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 40.0% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Colorado | W | 23.1% | 33.9% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsArizona | L | 27.3% | 34.6% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Duke (neutral) | L | 30.0% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMorgan State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | 25.0% | 30.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kansas (neutral) | W | 23.5% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsBaylor | L | 26.7% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Hawaii | W | 30.0% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Texas Tech | L | 35.7% | 33.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 26.7% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @BYU | L | 35.3% | 35.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Morgan State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Cutter Boley nor since Cutter Boley’s last game: Cutter Boley had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.