Arizona State’s third-down conversion rate with Cutter Boley and since Cutter Boley’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona State was 8.8 percentage points under with Cutter Boley and 2.5 percentage points under since Cutter Boley’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 31.0% and 32.6%, a difference of 1.5%. All 3 night games were with Cutter Boley. All 3 nonconference games were with Cutter Boley. All 4 first-half games were with Cutter Boley.
Cutter Boley, quarterback: 1,360 passing yards, 173 pass attempts and 105 completions in 7 games this season.
3 games since Cutter Boley’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −6.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Cutter Boley vs since Cutter Boley’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −1.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Cutter Boley vs since Cutter Boley’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMorgan State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | 25.0% | 30.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kansas (neutral) | W | 23.5% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Baylor | L | 26.7% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Hawaii | W | 30.0% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 35.7% | 32.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 26.7% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ BYU | L | 35.3% | 35.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Morgan State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.