Arizona State’s points of margin with Cutter Boley and since Cutter Boley’s last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arizona State was 5.7 points under with Cutter Boley and 3.1 points over since Cutter Boley’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 4.8 and -8.0, a difference of 12.8. All 3 night games were with Cutter Boley. All 3 nonconference games were with Cutter Boley. All 4 first-half games were with Cutter Boley.
Cutter Boley, quarterback: 1,360 passing yards, 173 pass attempts and 105 completions in 7 games this season.
3 games since Cutter Boley’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −8.8 difference in points of margin over expected with Cutter Boley vs since Cutter Boley’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +12.8 difference in points of margin with Cutter Boley vs since Cutter Boley’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMorgan State | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | -28 | -14.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kansas (neutral) | W | 7 | -10.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Baylor | L | -36 | -3.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Hawaii | W | 18 | 12.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | -28 | -12.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 11 | -2.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ BYU | L | -7 | -18.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Morgan State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.