Cam Edwards’ rushing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed running backs, Cam Edwards was 22.7 yards over at home and 15.5 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 1. The plain averages are 88.7 and 38.0, a difference of 50.7. All 3 day games were at home. All 3 unranked opponents were at home.
One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
+22.7
away
+15.5
050
plain
88.7
38.0
50100150
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 98 | 70.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 152 | 75.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 38 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Nebraska | L | 16 | 51.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed running backs in its other 2026 games, plus 10.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for running backs that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s running backs’ rushing yards in his games, 60%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 101% of the difference the model predicts.