Brad Jackson’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Brad Jackson was 26.9 yards under at home and 69.5 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 216.8 and 283.0, a difference of 66.2. Both ranked opponents were away.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−26.9
away
+69.5
-50050100
A −96.5 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
plain
216.8
283.0
200300
A −66.2 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 150 | 152.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 192 | 205.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs North Texas | W | 268 | 245.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 244 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 372 | 253.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 213 | 272.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 167 | 224.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 327 | 233.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 9.1 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 94%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 102% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Incarnate Word has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.