Putting Up Numbers· college football

Alonza Barnett III’s passing yards at home and away

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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Alonza Barnett III was 79.2 yards under at home and 34.0 yards under away in 2026, 1 game against 1. The plain averages are 145.5 and 186.0, a difference of 40.5. Both night games were at home.

One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

passing yards a game over expected

The games

at homeaway
Alonza Barnett III’s games, 2026, each marked at home or away
SideDateGameResultpassing yardsExpected
Sep 3, 2026vsBBethune-CookmanW158—
Sep 12, 2026@PittsburghL186220.0
Oct 30, 2026vsBaylorL133212.2

Method

  • Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 9.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 79%.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 102% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.