Wake Forest’s rebounds at home and away
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Through Wake Forest’s game on Mar 19, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wake Forest was 2.4 rebounds under at home and 2.3 rebounds over away over its last 60 games, 35 games against 21. The plain averages are 28.2 and 30.2, a difference of 2.0. Expected was 2.8 rebounds higher at home than away. All 3 top-10 opponents were away.
Wake Forest’s −4.8 at home vs away over expected ranks 363rd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 19, 2026.
rebounds a game over expected
at home
−2.4
away
+2.3
-10010
A −4.8 difference in rebounds over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
28.2
30.2
203040
A −2.0 difference in rebounds at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rebounds | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2024 | @ Charlotte | W | 29 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ Villanova | L | 37 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs Winthrop | W | 29 | 32.3 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | vs George Mason | L | 31 | 29.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Davidson | W | 30 | 25.9 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | vs Fairfield | L | 22 | 29.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs Gardner-Webb | W | 34 | 36.9 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | vs Campbell | W | 37 | 30.7 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ St. John's | L | 28 | 26.7 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Clemson | L | 23 | 26.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs UNC Greensboro | W | 27 | 28.1 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ Virginia | L | 23 | 28.4 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | 23 | 25.0 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 31 | 24.4 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 23 | 24.8 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs Stanford | L | 23 | 26.1 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs California | L | 18 | 24.5 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @ North Carolina | L | 17 | 27.4 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vs Boston College | W | 24 | 27.2 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs NC State | L | 20 | 28.9 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 39 | 28.9 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | @ Syracuse | L | 31 | 29.0 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | vs Duke | L | 17 | 21.9 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 33 | 25.2 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vs SMU | W | 28 | 31.3 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @ Miami | L | 25 | 25.7 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @NC State | L | 34 | 27.3 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 24 | 30.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Radford | W | 43 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs Presbyterian | W | 43 | 34.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Hampton | W | 40 | 38.2 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Mercer | W | 30 | 35.3 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs North Carolina Central | W | 38 | 39.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Western Carolina | W | 32 | 33.8 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Morgan State (neutral) | W | 48 | 36.6 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs UCF (neutral) | W | 37 | 30.0 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Illinois State (neutral) | W | 27 | 30.9 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs William & Mary | L | 28 | 35.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Georgetown | L | 24 | 29.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 29 | 31.5 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vsMiami | L | 22 | 28.6 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vsGardner-Webb | W | 33 | 37.5 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | W | 39 | 33.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsSyracuse | L | 31 | 27.0 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @Stanford | L | 30 | 26.8 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @California | L | 29 | 26.2 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsNC State | L | 19 | 30.1 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Clemson | L | 32 | 25.3 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsVirginia Tech | L | 28 | 29.8 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsVirginia | L | 33 | 26.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Duke | L | 37 | 24.8 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @SMU | W | 29 | 34.8 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina | L | 20 | 27.1 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Louisville | L | 28 | 27.1 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsNotre Dame | L | 23 | 28.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Boston College | W | 36 | 32.5 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @NC State | L | 24 | 29.1 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsFlorida State | L | 32 | 34.7 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsCalifornia (neutral) | L | 26 | 26.8 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Maryland Eastern Shore | L | 29 | 33.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 in 2024-25, plus 0.4 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% in 2024-25, 91% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.