Putting Up Numbers· women's college basketball

Wake Forest’s points allowed at home and away

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Through Wake Forest’s game on Mar 19, 2026.

Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wake Forest was 4.9 points over at home and 5.5 points under away in 2025-26, 19 games against 9. The plain averages are 68.4 and 67.8, a difference of 0.6. Expected was 9.8 points lower at home than away. All 10 nonconference games were at home.

Wake Forest’s +10.4 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26 through Mar 19.

points allowed a game over expected

A +10.4 difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.

A +0.6 difference in points allowed at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 14 times in 100.

The games

at homeaway
Wake Forest’s games, 2025-26, each marked at home or away
SideDateGameResultpoints allowedExpected
Nov 3, 2025vsRadfordW6458.5
Nov 6, 2025vsPresbyterianW4145.1
Nov 9, 2025vsHamptonW4854.6
Nov 13, 2025vsMercerW6157.1
Nov 20, 2025vsNorth Carolina CentralW6554.3
Nov 23, 2025vsWestern CarolinaW4948.7
Nov 26, 2025vsMorgan State (neutral)W3553.7
Nov 27, 2025vsUCF (neutral)W6064.2
Nov 28, 2025vsIllinois State (neutral)W4467.1
Dec 3, 2025vsWilliam & MaryL6755.2
Dec 7, 2025vsGeorgetownL5864.4
Dec 14, 2025vsGeorgia TechW5667.7
Dec 18, 2025vsMiamiL6471.6
Dec 22, 2025vsGardner-WebbW6647.1
Jan 1, 2026@PittsburghW5562.2
Jan 4, 2026vsSyracuseL7374.3
Jan 8, 2026@StanfordL5574.8
Jan 11, 2026@CaliforniaL6173.7
Jan 15, 2026vsNC StateL9577.9
Jan 18, 2026@ClemsonL7870.3
Jan 24, 2026vsVirginia TechL8571.6
Jan 29, 2026vsVirginiaL10973.9
Feb 1, 2026@DukeL8080.6
Feb 5, 2026@SMUW6564.7
Feb 8, 2026vsNorth CarolinaL8475.6
Feb 12, 2026@LouisvilleL8682.8
Feb 19, 2026vsNotre DameL7879.0
Feb 22, 2026@Boston CollegeW6567.6
Feb 26, 2026@NC StateL6582.5
Mar 1, 2026vsFlorida StateL7772.9
Mar 4, 2026vsCalifornia (neutral)L7571.5
Mar 19, 2026vsMaryland Eastern ShoreL5956.0

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Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.