Virginia Tech’s points of margin at home and away
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Through Virginia Tech’s game on Mar 20, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia Tech was 3.5 points under at home and 7.3 points over away over its last 60 games, 32 games against 20. The plain averages are 10.7 and 5.5, a difference of 5.3. Expected was 16.0 points higher at home than away.
Virginia Tech’s −10.8 at home vs away over expected ranks 363rd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 20, 2026.
points of margin a game over expected
at home
−3.5
away
+7.3
-20020
A −10.8 difference in points of margin over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
10.7
5.5
050
A +5.3 difference in points of margin at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Elon | W | 18 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Davidson (neutral) | W | 29 | 7.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Michigan (neutral) | L | -11 | -10.1 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ Georgia | W | 9 | 5.2 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ Duke | L | -22 | -19.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Radford | W | 39 | 32.7 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Campbell | W | 35 | 18.3 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Florida State | L | -31 | -6.8 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ Miami | W | 4 | 4.0 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 11 | -10.5 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | W | 7 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | -8 | 7.7 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs Louisville | W | 5 | -3.3 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 27 | 7.7 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ NC State | L | -28 | -13.9 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | -16 | -19.2 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vs SMU | W | 8 | 12.4 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vs Syracuse | L | -6 | 9.3 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | @Virginia | W | 25 | 0.0 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @ North Carolina | L | -5 | -13.4 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vs Stanford | L | -1 | 2.7 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs California | W | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @ Boston College | L | -3 | 2.2 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 2 | -0.3 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsGeorgia Tech (neutral) | L | -15 | -6.1 | |
| Mar 20, 2025 | vs North Carolina A&T | W | 16 | 18.9 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vs Texas Tech | L | -10 | 7.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Towson | W | 44 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Loyola Maryland | W | 16 | 32.5 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Gardner-Webb | W | 36 | 39.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 23 | 18.5 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Niagara | W | 37 | 53.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | -9 | -0.3 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | -4 | 4.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Oregon State (neutral) | W | 11 | 10.4 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 4 | 2.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsDuke | L | -16 | -11.2 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vs Presbyterian | W | 56 | 53.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 18 | 30.5 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @Florida State | W | 25 | 7.7 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsRadford | W | 32 | 26.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsMiami | L | -8 | 7.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @Louisville | L | -25 | -13.7 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @Syracuse | W | 20 | -3.8 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsBoston College | W | 22 | 25.6 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @SMU | W | 37 | 18.9 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsClemson | W | 3 | 3.3 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Wake Forest | W | 28 | 11.7 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 17 | 29.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsVirginia | W | 12 | 0.6 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Notre Dame | L | -10 | -10.8 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsNC State | L | -20 | -2.3 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Stanford | W | 12 | -1.8 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @California | W | 10 | -0.7 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina | L | -3 | -6.9 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 11 | 9.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Virginia | W | 1 | -4.3 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsGeorgia Tech (neutral) | W | 8 | 7.3 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina (neutral) | L | -17 | -8.8 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Oregon (neutral) | L | -10 | -4.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.7 in 2024-25, plus 2.7 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% in 2024-25, 97% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.