UNC Asheville’s points of margin at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNC Asheville was 6.2 points under at home and 5.9 points over away in 2025-26, 13 games against 13. The plain averages are 4.3 and -2.5, a difference of 6.9.
UNC Asheville’s −12.1 at home vs away over expected ranks 361st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
points of margin a game over expected
at home
−6.2
away
+5.9
-10010
A −12.1 difference in points of margin over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
4.3
-2.5
050
A +6.9 difference in points of margin at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Mercer | L | -9 | -5.7 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vsWWarren Wilson | W | 64 | — | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @ North Carolina Central | L | -13 | -3.6 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Western Carolina | W | 17 | -0.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs App State | L | -24 | -13.1 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Wofford | L | -26 | -7.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Furman | L | -7 | -13.0 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs South Carolina State | W | 6 | 14.7 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs North Florida | L | -15 | -2.2 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ East Tennessee State | L | -10 | -12.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ East Carolina | L | -14 | -25.1 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vsSSimmons (KY) | W | 55 | — | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsBBrevard | W | 53 | — | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ High Point | L | -27 | -20.4 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Winthrop | L | -4 | -1.1 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ Gardner-Webb | W | 11 | -3.5 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Longwood | L | -9 | -10.4 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vs Charleston Southern | L | -6 | 3.6 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ Presbyterian | W | 11 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs South Carolina Upstate | W | 1 | 4.7 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @ Radford | L | -12 | -15.8 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | vsGardner-Webb | L | -2 | 3.1 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @Charleston Southern | W | 12 | -3.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Longwood | L | -12 | -15.8 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsRadford | L | -28 | -9.1 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @South Carolina Upstate | W | 6 | -1.3 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsHigh Point | L | -5 | -16.4 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsPresbyterian | W | 18 | 16.9 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @Winthrop | W | 5 | -7.4 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsLongwood (neutral) | L | -14 | -12.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Warren Wilson, Simmons (KY), Brevard have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.