Tennessee State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee State was 3.9 points over at home and 3.7 points under away over its last 60 games, 25 games against 31. The plain averages are 69.1 and 56.2, a difference of 12.9. All 3 ranked opponents were away. All 3 games without Somah Kamara were away.
Tennessee State’s +7.6 at home vs away over expected ranks 3rd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points a game over expected
at home
+3.9
away
−3.7
-20020
A +7.6 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
69.1
56.2
406080
A +12.9 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | vs Eastern Illinois (neutral) | L | 48 | 64.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2024 | vsCCumberland (TN) | W | 72 | — | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ Eastern Kentucky | W | 66 | 63.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | @ Wright State | L | 65 | 68.5 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ Dayton | L | 58 | 59.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs Akron | W | 72 | 67.6 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 62 | 60.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UNC Asheville | W | 92 | 72.4 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ North Texas | L | 65 | 57.2 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ Ole Miss | L | 38 | 45.6 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | @ Southern Indiana | L | 56 | 61.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Morehead State | L | 51 | 72.0 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Southeast Missouri State | L | 68 | 72.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Little Rock | L | 63 | 63.0 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @ Lindenwood | L | 54 | 62.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Western Illinois | L | 67 | 66.2 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs SIU Edwardsville | L | 70 | 73.4 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vsEastern Illinois | L | 54 | 58.4 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vs Tennessee Tech | L | 64 | 63.2 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | @Little Rock | L | 60 | 60.5 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @Southeast Missouri State | W | 70 | 69.5 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vsWestern Illinois | W | 70 | 68.7 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsLindenwood | L | 70 | 63.7 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @Eastern Illinois | L | 49 | 56.1 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @SIU Edwardsville | W | 77 | 70.2 | |
| Feb 18, 2025 | @ UT Martin | L | 52 | 64.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Tennessee Tech | L | 71 | 60.0 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vsMorehead State | W | 72 | 73.1 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsSouthern Indiana | W | 73 | 62.7 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | vsSouthern Indiana (neutral) | L | 66 | 61.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 53 | 54.4 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsWright State | L | 80 | 66.7 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ TCU | L | 39 | 43.2 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ UT Arlington | L | 58 | 59.8 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs North Alabama | W | 82 | 62.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 43 | 49.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs William & Mary | L | 53 | 59.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Lipscomb | L | 55 | 58.4 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Chattanooga | L | 51 | 61.8 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vsUT Martin | L | 79 | 60.3 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsSoutheast Missouri State | W | 76 | 64.5 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @Tennessee Tech | L | 63 | 60.7 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Little Rock | L | 39 | 58.6 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @Western Illinois | L | 59 | 57.3 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Eastern Illinois | L | 45 | 65.1 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsMorehead State | W | 70 | 61.2 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsSouthern Indiana | L | 67 | 57.9 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @SIU Edwardsville | L | 41 | 57.8 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Lindenwood | L | 58 | 56.7 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsLittle Rock | L | 54 | 60.3 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vsTennessee Tech | L | 49 | 64.4 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vsEastern Illinois | L | 60 | 66.8 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsWestern Illinois | W | 87 | 58.0 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Southern Indiana | L | 55 | 56.1 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Morehead State | L | 53 | 59.7 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsLindenwood | L | 70 | 58.6 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsSIU Edwardsville | L | 52 | 59.8 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @Southeast Missouri State | L | 52 | 63.4 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @UT Martin | W | 67 | 58.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsTToccoa Falls | W | 95 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.3 in 2024-25, plus 1.3 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Cumberland (TN), Toccoa Falls have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.