TCU’s assists vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Through TCU’s game on Mar 30, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, TCU was 2.5 assists under vs a ranked opponent and 1.4 assists over vs an unranked opponent over its last 60 games, 14 games against 38. The plain averages are 12.7 and 18.6, a difference of 5.8.
TCU’s −3.9 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 81st of the 81 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 30, 2026.
assists a game over expected
A −3.9 difference in assists over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −5.8 difference in assists vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | assists | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ Kansas | W | 19 | 18.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | W | 16 | 14.4 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 29 | 20.8 | |
| Jan 17, 2025 | vs Utah | W | 17 | 18.2 | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 12 | 15.8 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vs Baylor | W | 15 | 16.2 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Iowa State | W | 16 | 16.5 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 10 | 15.2 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsTexas Tech | W | 19 | 15.3 | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | vs BYU | W | 23 | 18.0 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @ Arizona | W | 21 | 16.0 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | @ Arizona State | W | 23 | 19.7 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 15 | 16.1 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | vs Houston | W | 22 | 20.5 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @Baylor | W | 13 | 15.1 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 16 | 17.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsWest Virginia (neutral) | W | 19 | 15.3 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsBaylor (neutral) | W | 11 | 15.8 | |
| Mar 21, 2025 | vs Fairleigh Dickinson | W | 18 | 18.5 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vs Louisville | W | 20 | 16.9 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | W | 8 | 15.2 | |
| Mar 31, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 8 | 14.4 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs North Carolina A&T | W | 24 | 19.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 25 | 18.4 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Tennessee State | W | 25 | 18.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ NC State | W | 11 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Tarleton State | W | 23 | 16.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs UT Rio Grande Valley | W | 24 | 19.8 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs Richmond (neutral) | W | 12 | 15.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs UAB (neutral) | W | 12 | 18.0 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Incarnate Word | W | 24 | 17.6 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 27 | 19.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Jacksonville | W | 23 | 17.5 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 29 | 20.6 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsKansas State | W | 20 | 16.4 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @BYU | W | 18 | 14.6 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Utah | L | 15 | 14.4 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 20 | 16.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsArizona State | W | 18 | 15.2 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @West Virginia | W | 5 | 14.4 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsArizona | W | 16 | 19.6 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 16 | 15.9 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @UCF | W | 19 | 16.3 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsKansas | W | 17 | 15.5 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Texas Tech | L | 8 | 12.7 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vsHouston | W | 19 | 18.3 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Colorado | L | 10 | 12.7 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Baylor | W | 8 | 13.6 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsWest Virginia | W | 15 | 15.0 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @Houston | W | 13 | 17.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 15 | 15.6 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | W | 14 | 17.8 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsBaylor | W | 11 | 14.5 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsBYU (neutral) | W | 11 | 15.5 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsKansas State (neutral) | W | 11 | 16.3 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsWest Virginia (neutral) | L | 9 | 14.7 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs UC San Diego | W | 23 | 17.7 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 15 | 13.5 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Virginia (neutral) | W | 16 | 16.3 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | L | 10 | 13.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 in 2024-25, plus 0.6 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 91% in 2024-25, 91% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 8 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 are neither vs a ranked opponent nor vs an unranked opponent, and sit out.