Saint Louis’ points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Saint Louis was 5.1 points under at home and 5.8 points over away in 2025-26, 15 games against 13. The plain averages are 62.8 and 66.1, a difference of 3.3.
Saint Louis’ −10.9 at home vs away over expected ranks 362nd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
points a game over expected
at home
−5.1
away
+5.8
-200
A −10.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
62.8
66.1
50100
A −3.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Missouri State | L | 66 | 57.9 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 55 | 61.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Northern Iowa | W | 62 | 60.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Southern Indiana | L | 52 | 63.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Murray State | L | 88 | 68.3 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @ Illinois State | L | 75 | 61.4 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs SMU (neutral) | W | 70 | 66.0 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Stetson (neutral) | L | 67 | 66.8 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs St. Bonaventure | W | 76 | 63.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Evansville | W | 72 | 72.9 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Missouri | L | 66 | 65.8 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 74 | 62.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Ohio | W | 80 | 67.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsHHealth Sciences & Pharmacy | W | 132 | — | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ Duquesne | W | 72 | 62.6 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Davidson | L | 55 | 56.6 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vs VCU | L | 39 | 66.0 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ Loyola Chicago | L | 64 | 57.7 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ La Salle | W | 66 | 61.4 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs Dayton | W | 62 | 67.5 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Fordham | W | 67 | 63.6 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsLoyola Chicago | L | 59 | 60.7 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ George Washington | L | 62 | 57.6 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @ George Mason | L | 51 | 55.4 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs Richmond | L | 44 | 58.0 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @ Rhode Island | L | 43 | 52.2 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsFordham | L | 39 | 68.2 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Dayton | L | 63 | 64.7 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vs Saint Joseph's | L | 54 | 58.3 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vsDuquesne | L | 64 | 65.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Davidson | L | 62 | 53.5 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsFordham (neutral) | W | 68 | 64.9 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsLa Salle (neutral) | L | 51 | 63.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Health Sciences & Pharmacy has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.