Sacramento State’s points allowed at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Sacramento State was 4.8 points under at home and NaN points over away over its last 60 games, 22 games against 28. The plain averages are 56.0 and 68.3, a difference of 12.2.
Sacramento State’s NaN at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points allowed a game over expected
at home
−4.8
away
NaN
A NaN difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
56.0
68.3
406080
A −12.2 difference in points allowed at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Abilene Christian (neutral) | L | 75 | 65.9 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs Wagner (neutral) | W | 34 | 50.6 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | vs Kansas City | W | 57 | 60.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Omaha | L | 67 | 65.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs San José State | W | 39 | 63.1 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | @ New Mexico | L | 69 | 69.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vsAbilene Christian (neutral) | L | 80 | 65.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ Portland State | W | 74 | 55.9 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @ Idaho | L | 63 | 64.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Eastern Washington | L | 89 | 62.8 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs Northern Arizona | L | 75 | 78.0 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs Northern Colorado | W | 48 | 58.6 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @ Idaho State | W | 63 | 63.5 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Weber State | L | 68 | 63.4 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs Montana State | L | 67 | 69.2 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Montana | L | 69 | 63.9 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vsEastern Washington | L | 68 | 61.5 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsIdaho | W | 53 | 62.1 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @Northern Colorado | L | 85 | 58.5 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @Northern Arizona | L | 75 | 80.7 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vsWeber State | W | 45 | 62.4 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vsIdaho State | L | 50 | 61.7 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @Montana | L | 71 | 66.5 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @Montana State | W | 69 | 71.7 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsEastern Washington (neutral) | W | 67 | 63.0 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsNorthern Arizona (neutral) | L | 69 | 79.7 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vsSStanton | W | 39 | — | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 45 | 54.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ California | L | 69 | 71.4 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ UC San Diego | W | 60 | 66.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Long Beach State | W | 54 | 54.2 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Cal State Fullerton | W | 58 | 63.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs UC Davis | L | 70 | 61.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Chattanooga (neutral) | L | 59 | 57.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ California Baptist | L | 92 | 67.8 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Pacific | L | 67 | 61.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | vsSSimpson (CA) | W | 42 | — | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | @ San Francisco | L | 61 | 66.0 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @San José State | L | 61 | 55.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsIdaho State | L | 61 | 57.6 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsWeber State | W | 39 | 57.9 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsPortland State | W | 64 | 56.6 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @Northern Arizona | W | 59 | 65.1 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Northern Colorado | L | 68 | 61.2 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsIdaho | L | 62 | 68.9 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsEastern Washington | W | 54 | 62.9 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @Montana State | L | 66 | 69.5 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Montana | W | 57 | 59.5 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @Weber State | L | 72 | 58.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Portland State | L | 64 | 59.3 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vsNorthern Colorado | L | 62 | 58.9 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsNorthern Arizona | L | 60 | 62.3 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @Eastern Washington | W | 60 | 65.2 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Idaho | L | 75 | 70.8 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsMontana | W | 57 | 56.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsMontana State | L | 61 | 67.1 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @Idaho State | W | 72 | 59.6 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | vsIdaho State (neutral) | W | 53 | 59.5 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsIdaho (neutral) | L | 59 | 70.4 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ UT Arlington | W | 61 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 in 2024-25, minus 1.3 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stanton, Simpson (CA) have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.