Purdue’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Purdue was 5.2 points over at home and 6.7 points under away in 2025-26, 17 games against 12. The plain averages are 77.5 and 58.5, a difference of 19.0. Both top-10 opponents were away.
Purdue’s +11.9 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
points a game over expected
at home
+5.2
away
−6.7
-200
A +11.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
77.5
58.5
406080
A +19.0 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Fairleigh Dickinson | W | 67 | 70.6 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs Eastern Illinois | W | 82 | 81.5 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Purdue Fort Wayne | L | 67 | 74.4 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 35 | 60.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 79 | 68.5 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Howard | W | 92 | 73.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 55 | 74.6 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Evansville | W | 91 | 83.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 56 | 59.3 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Lipscomb | W | 88 | 75.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Dayton | W | 80 | 78.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Jackson State | W | 93 | 78.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs Illinois | L | 73 | 66.8 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 56 | 68.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 62 | 65.8 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | W | 75 | 70.3 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 78 | 62.2 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ USC | L | 57 | 60.2 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 48 | 52.5 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vs Indiana | W | 80 | 70.5 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Michigan State | L | 65 | 67.2 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 55 | 57.9 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs Penn State | L | 82 | 82.3 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Indiana | L | 59 | 69.1 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 72 | 72.1 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 74 | 63.1 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @ Maryland | L | 66 | 64.0 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vs Oregon | L | 65 | 66.2 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @ Northwestern | W | 67 | 74.4 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsOregon (neutral) | L | 64 | 65.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.