Old Dominion’s points allowed in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through Old Dominion’s game on Nov 2, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 3.9 points over in a conference game and 5.7 points under in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 37 games against 21. The plain averages are 71.2 and 60.5, a difference of 10.7. Both ranked opponents were in a nonconference game.
Old Dominion’s +9.7 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Nov 2, 2026.
points allowed a game over expected
A +9.7 difference in points allowed over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +10.7 difference in points allowed in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs William & Mary | W | 39 | 60.5 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 70 | 82.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Oakland (neutral) | W | 56 | 57.5 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ NC State | L | 86 | 83.8 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs East Carolina | L | 59 | 62.1 | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | @ Howard | W | 58 | 63.1 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsVVirginia State | W | 58 | — | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs South Alabama | W | 59 | 59.2 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | W | 47 | 59.6 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ UL Monroe | W | 68 | 66.3 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 80 | 68.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs Marshall | W | 75 | 62.5 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | vs App State | W | 71 | 59.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs Texas State | L | 65 | 56.5 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @App State | L | 74 | 62.2 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 57 | 63.1 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | vsGeorgia State | L | 66 | 59.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | 85 | 71.0 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | @ Troy | L | 83 | 76.9 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vs Toledo | L | 56 | 64.8 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @Marshall | L | 73 | 65.3 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @James Madison | L | 66 | 74.9 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | W | 88 | 66.3 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 66 | 60.7 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | W | 65 | 71.9 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsGeorgia State (neutral) | L | 65 | 61.2 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | vs Navy | W | 42 | 62.0 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Massachusetts | L | 58 | 68.0 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsEElizabeth City State | W | 32 | — | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 66 | 62.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @William & Mary | W | 53 | 62.2 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @East Carolina | W | 67 | 73.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs North Carolina Central | W | 48 | 58.9 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Texas Tech (neutral) | L | 67 | 76.3 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs Oregon (neutral) | L | 84 | 80.6 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vs Delaware State | W | 45 | 52.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsHoward | W | 59 | 65.4 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vsTroy | L | 81 | 77.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | L | 86 | 81.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Indiana State (neutral) | W | 68 | 72.2 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | W | 84 | 68.4 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsGeorgia State | W | 68 | 68.3 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @Marshall | L | 77 | 72.3 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Georgia Southern | L | 77 | 71.6 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vsApp State | W | 54 | 61.5 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsMarshall | W | 82 | 69.4 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @Arkansas State | L | 84 | 76.0 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Texas State | L | 65 | 62.5 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vsUL Monroe | W | 62 | 68.4 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | L | 86 | 70.4 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @ Louisiana | W | 61 | 58.6 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @ Ohio | W | 76 | 74.6 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 69 | 70.4 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsJames Madison | L | 87 | 74.1 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @Georgia State | W | 75 | 70.6 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Coastal Carolina | W | 60 | 73.7 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 77 | 77.4 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @App State | W | 65 | 63.4 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsUL Monroe (neutral) | L | 68 | 69.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 58 | 58.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 in 2024-25, minus 1.3 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26, 100% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Virginia State, Elizabeth City State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 3, 2026; the games are the ones through Nov 2.