Ohio State’s turnovers vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 2.4 turnovers under vs a ranked opponent and NaN turnovers over vs an unranked opponent over its last 60 games, 20 games against 35. The plain averages are 12.4 and 12.8, a difference of 0.4. All 4 games without Jaloni Cambridge were vs an unranked opponent.
Ohio State’s NaN vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 1st of the 81 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
turnovers a game over expected
A NaN difference in turnovers over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −0.4 difference in turnovers vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Youngstown State | W | 12 | 10.8 | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | vsGGrand Valley State | W | 17 | — | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Stanford (neutral) | W | 6 | 10.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ Rutgers | W | 18 | 12.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 12 | 10.9 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ Michigan | W | 8 | 15.5 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs Oregon | W | 15 | 14.3 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 6 | 10.6 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 13 | 14.1 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vs Maryland | W | 6 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 15 | 11.7 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vs Washington | W | 12 | 11.0 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 10 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @ USC | L | 9 | 16.8 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 17 | 11.9 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 12 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 10 | 12.1 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 10 | 11.0 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 13 | 17.6 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @Maryland | L | 19 | 13.2 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsIowa (neutral) | W | 13 | 13.2 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsUCLA (neutral) | L | 11 | 12.7 | |
| Mar 21, 2025 | vs Montana State | W | 15 | 17.5 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vs Tennessee | L | 22 | 17.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Coppin State | W | 15 | 14.8 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Bellarmine | W | 10 | 9.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 24 | 19.7 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 7 | 12.4 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Belmont (neutral) | W | 15 | 13.3 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | W | 16 | 17.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Niagara | W | 17 | 15.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @Northwestern | W | 13 | 10.6 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Northern Kentucky | W | 11 | 10.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 12 | 10.9 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Norfolk State | W | 19 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 7 | 10.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsUCLA | L | 11 | 12.1 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @Purdue | W | 12 | 12.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsRutgers | W | 16 | 11.4 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ Illinois | W | 13 | 13.3 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 11 | 16.7 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vsPenn State | W | 17 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs TCU (neutral) | W | 8 | 10.9 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsIndiana | W | 7 | 9.5 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Iowa | L | 11 | 13.8 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsWisconsin | W | 8 | 12.3 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsNebraska | W | 16 | 15.3 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Washington | W | 9 | 12.1 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Oregon | W | 18 | 14.9 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsMaryland | L | 18 | 15.7 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @Minnesota | L | 11 | 13.9 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsUSC | W | 17 | 13.8 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vsMichigan | L | 10 | 18.2 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 17 | 16.8 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsIndiana (neutral) | W | 8 | 9.8 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsMinnesota (neutral) | W | 10 | 13.7 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsUCLA (neutral) | L | 15 | 12.2 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Howard | W | 12 | 13.1 | |
| Mar 23, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | L | 21 | 16.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs UIC | W | 14 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 in 2024-25, minus 0.3 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% in 2024-25, 90% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Grand Valley State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- 4 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 are neither vs a ranked opponent nor vs an unranked opponent, and sit out.