Nebraska’s points allowed in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through Nebraska’s game on Mar 20, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nebraska was 3.0 points over in a conference game and 6.3 points under in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 40 games against 20. The plain averages are 75.0 and 55.7, a difference of 19.4. All 5 top-10 opponents were in a conference game. All 3 games without Logan Nissley were in a nonconference game.
Nebraska’s +9.3 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 2nd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 20, 2026.
points allowed a game over expected
A +9.3 difference in points allowed over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +19.4 difference in points allowed in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ Creighton | L | 80 | 74.3 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Kansas City | W | 38 | 56.7 | |
| Dec 3, 2024 | vs Lindenwood | W | 48 | 60.1 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs Minnesota | W | 65 | 70.9 | |
| Dec 11, 2024 | vs Tarleton State | W | 50 | 55.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Chattanooga | W | 42 | 52.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 72 | 76.3 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ UCLA | L | 91 | 79.8 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | @ USC | L | 75 | 83.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 61 | 70.6 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 80 | 75.4 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 62 | 67.7 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | @ Iowa | W | 84 | 74.5 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 60 | 65.8 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vs Ohio State | L | 72 | 76.1 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 68 | 64.7 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 76 | 72.1 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vs Michigan | L | 78 | 75.4 | |
| Feb 10, 2025 | vsIowa | L | 81 | 72.0 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 71 | 82.7 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 77 | 71.2 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | vs Oregon | W | 90 | 66.0 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs Washington | L | 83 | 67.9 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @ Northwestern | W | 77 | 67.8 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | vsRutgers (neutral) | W | 60 | 66.4 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsIllinois (neutral) | W | 70 | 70.3 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsUCLA (neutral) | L | 85 | 78.8 | |
| Mar 21, 2025 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 63 | 73.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Northwestern State | W | 46 | 50.1 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 46 | 50.5 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vsCreighton | W | 50 | 64.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs North Dakota State (neutral) | W | 70 | 68.0 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Oral Roberts | W | 58 | 65.8 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Purdue Fort Wayne (neutral) | W | 57 | 61.4 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Virginia (neutral) | W | 82 | 70.9 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Bradley | W | 53 | 56.1 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @Penn State | W | 83 | 73.9 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Omaha | W | 35 | 43.5 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Illinois State | W | 44 | 59.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs California Baptist | W | 56 | 63.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsUSC | L | 74 | 67.9 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @Iowa | L | 86 | 75.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsPurdue | W | 62 | 65.8 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vsIndiana | W | 73 | 66.7 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsUCLA | L | 83 | 81.7 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @Michigan State | L | 73 | 79.9 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @Wisconsin | L | 63 | 67.3 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsIllinois | W | 75 | 70.8 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vsNorthwestern | W | 73 | 61.6 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Ohio State | L | 90 | 79.3 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 88 | 80.8 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsMaryland | L | 78 | 77.1 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Minnesota | L | 84 | 71.9 | |
| Feb 16, 2026 | vsIowa | L | 80 | 73.1 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @Oregon | L | 80 | 72.9 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Washington | W | 65 | 71.1 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsRutgers | W | 52 | 54.8 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsIndiana (neutral) | L | 72 | 68.1 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Richmond (neutral) | W | 56 | 68.1 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Baylor (neutral) | L | 67 | 68.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 in 2024-25, minus 1.3 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.