Montana State’s points of margin at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Montana State was 9.4 points over at home and 6.5 points under away in 2025-26, 13 games against 15. The plain averages are 28.1 and -0.5, a difference of 28.5.
Montana State’s +15.9 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
points of margin a game over expected
at home
+9.4
away
−6.5
-20020
A +15.9 difference in points of margin over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
28.1
-0.5
-2002040
A +28.5 difference in points of margin at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | vsCCarroll (MT) | W | 52 | — | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ Portland | W | 14 | 4.1 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vsMMinot State | W | 39 | — | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs UNLV | W | 13 | 4.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ Troy | L | -14 | -2.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Colorado | W | 1 | -11.2 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ North Dakota State | L | -25 | -4.2 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs North Dakota | W | 42 | 30.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | -25 | -15.6 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Oregon State (neutral) | L | -2 | 2.3 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Hawai'i (neutral) | W | 16 | 7.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @ Northern Colorado | W | 7 | 7.5 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Northern Arizona | W | 17 | 16.0 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Eastern Washington | W | 2 | 17.7 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Idaho | W | 33 | 4.7 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Montana | W | 38 | 21.4 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vsNorthern Colorado | W | 14 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ Idaho State | L | -19 | 8.7 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Weber State | W | 20 | 15.1 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Sacramento State | W | 35 | 15.6 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Portland State | W | 48 | 26.0 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Idaho | L | -3 | 1.5 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Eastern Washington | W | 2 | 12.2 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Montana | W | 17 | 17.2 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsWeber State | W | 45 | 19.0 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsIdaho State | W | 6 | 12.6 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @Portland State | W | 3 | 23.4 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Sacramento State | W | 7 | 11.8 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | vsNorthern Arizona | W | 20 | 21.4 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsMontana (neutral) | W | 21 | 19.7 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsEastern Washington (neutral) | W | 2 | 14.9 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vsIdaho (neutral) | L | -3 | 4.2 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs San Francisco | W | 16 | 12.5 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vsPortland | W | 18 | 9.4 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | @ South Dakota | L | -9 | 5.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Carroll (MT), Minot State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.