Missouri State’s free throw attempts at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri State was NaN free throw attempts over at home and 2.6 free throw attempts under away over its last 60 games, 28 games against 24. The plain averages are 22.6 and 16.7, a difference of 5.9.
Missouri State’s NaN at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
free throw attempts a game over expected
at home
NaN
away
−2.6
A NaN difference in free throw attempts over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
22.6
16.7
102030
A +5.9 difference in free throw attempts at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | free throw attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Little Rock | W | 18 | 20.3 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | @ Southeast Missouri State | W | 21 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Southern Miss | W | 23 | 17.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ UIC | L | 21 | 15.4 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Belmont | W | 20 | 16.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Murray State | W | 25 | 15.7 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 32 | 18.7 | |
| Jan 17, 2025 | @ Evansville | W | 16 | 18.8 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ Indiana State | W | 10 | 18.0 | |
| Jan 24, 2025 | vs Drake | W | 29 | 15.8 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vs Northern Iowa | W | 4 | 17.9 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Illinois State | L | 5 | 15.2 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vsEvansville | W | 22 | 19.3 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @Southern Illinois | W | 11 | 19.1 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | vs Valparaiso | W | 19 | 19.9 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | @Northern Iowa | W | 14 | 16.5 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Drake | W | 10 | 16.0 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @Murray State | L | 7 | 15.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @Belmont | L | 12 | 16.2 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsIllinois State | W | 13 | 15.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vs Bradley | W | 24 | 16.0 | |
| Mar 20, 2025 | vs Oral Roberts | W | 23 | 18.5 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vs Minnesota (neutral) | L | 13 | 15.4 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Saint Louis | W | 34 | 21.7 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ UT Arlington | W | 24 | 24.1 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @Southeast Missouri State | W | 29 | 22.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Wichita State (neutral) | W | 24 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 35 | 19.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Tulsa | L | 16 | 21.0 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Florida State (neutral) | L | 19 | 20.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Coppin State (neutral) | W | 17 | 22.6 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Tulane | W | 26 | 20.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Kansas | L | 26 | 20.0 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Arkansas | L | 26 | 18.7 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Gonzaga | L | 17 | 20.9 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Central Arkansas | W | 24 | 24.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Florida International | W | 29 | 21.4 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 32 | 22.8 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 17 | 18.6 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 16 | 21.1 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | L | 21 | 23.8 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 21 | 19.5 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @ Delaware | W | 19 | 18.3 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 20 | 19.1 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 20 | 19.6 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 23 | 16.5 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | L | 17 | 20.6 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Louisiana Tech | L | 6 | 19.5 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsLiberty | L | 16 | 20.1 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsDelaware | W | 23 | 18.9 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | vsSam Houston | W | 29 | 20.7 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 16 | 22.9 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @Western Kentucky | W | 17 | 16.1 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | L | 21 | 18.7 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee (neutral) | W | 23 | 19.0 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsFlorida International (neutral) | W | 25 | 22.0 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsLouisiana Tech (neutral) | W | 10 | 19.7 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Stephen F. Austin (neutral) | W | 16 | 20.1 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 12 | 19.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsSoutheast Missouri State | W | 21 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.5 in 2024-25, plus 0.4 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 81% in 2024-25, 82% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.