Marist’s free throw attempts at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marist was 3.0 free throw attempts under at home and NaN free throw attempts over away over its last 60 games, 27 games against 29. The plain averages are 12.1 and 15.4, a difference of 3.3.
Marist’s NaN at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
free throw attempts a game over expected
at home
−3.0
away
NaN
A NaN difference in free throw attempts over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
12.1
15.4
1020
A −3.3 difference in free throw attempts at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | free throw attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2024 | vs Lafayette | W | 4 | 11.5 | |
| Nov 18, 2024 | @ Stony Brook | L | 8 | 11.5 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | @ St. John's | L | 7 | 10.9 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Yale | W | 16 | 18.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Lehigh | L | 16 | 12.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs North Dakota (neutral) | W | 19 | 14.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Bryant | W | 15 | 12.5 | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | @ Holy Cross | L | 17 | 11.6 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | @ Mount St. Mary's | W | 21 | 13.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Manhattan | W | 21 | 12.8 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Iona | L | 7 | 14.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ Quinnipiac | L | 13 | 12.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Fairfield | L | 14 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs Saint Peter's | W | 8 | 12.1 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ Rider | W | 23 | 16.3 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vs Niagara | W | 24 | 18.9 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vs Canisius | W | 7 | 14.7 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | @ Siena | L | 13 | 15.3 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vsFairfield | L | 7 | 13.9 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @Iona | W | 18 | 13.2 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | vsSiena | L | 17 | 15.9 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vs Merrimack | L | 10 | 14.7 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | @Canisius | W | 22 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Niagara | W | 8 | 19.0 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vs Sacred Heart | W | 9 | 16.7 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @Saint Peter's | W | 21 | 10.5 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | @Merrimack | L | 11 | 13.8 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsMount St. Mary's | L | 12 | 15.2 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ UAlbany | L | 8 | 12.6 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Drexel | L | 11 | 11.2 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vsBryant | L | 15 | 17.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsHoly Cross | W | 13 | 12.9 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vsStony Brook | W | 9 | 11.1 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Monmouth | L | 15 | 13.6 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs LSU (neutral) | L | 14 | 12.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) (neutral) | L | 12 | 12.6 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @Lafayette | W | 19 | 11.0 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Binghamton | L | 9 | 14.8 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | @Mount St. Mary's | L | 22 | 16.5 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsQuinnipiac | L | 17 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsSacred Heart | W | 14 | 15.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Manhattan | W | 19 | 17.2 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @Merrimack | L | 22 | 13.7 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsRider | W | 3 | 17.4 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vsFairfield | L | 11 | 15.3 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Quinnipiac | L | 14 | 12.9 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @Sacred Heart | L | 7 | 15.4 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsSiena | W | 13 | 18.3 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Iona | L | 26 | 14.0 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsCanisius | W | 14 | 15.2 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsNiagara | W | 15 | 19.4 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Fairfield | L | 13 | 14.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsSaint Peter's | W | 14 | 14.5 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vsMerrimack | L | 13 | 15.0 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Rider | L | 16 | 15.8 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsManhattan | L | 9 | 18.6 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @Saint Peter's | W | 16 | 13.6 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Siena | L | 20 | 17.1 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsManhattan (neutral) | L | 25 | 17.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @Drexel | L | 9 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.5 in 2024-25, plus 0.4 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 81% in 2024-25, 82% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.