LSU’s points in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through LSU’s game on Mar 27, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, LSU was 3.2 points under in a conference game and 7.7 points over in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 36 games against 24. The plain averages are 80.8 and 101.2, a difference of 20.4. All 18 ranked opponents were in a conference game. All 8 top-10 opponents were in a conference game. All 3 games without Flau'jae Johnson were in a conference game.
LSU’s −11.0 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 363rd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 27, 2026.
points a game over expected
A −11.0 difference in points over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −20.4 difference in points in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2024 | vs Seton Hall (neutral) | W | 91 | 79.2 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | @ UIC | W | 91 | 80.6 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs UAlbany | W | 83 | 84.4 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 98 | 89.6 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 73 | 81.1 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 89 | 80.9 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 83 | 84.9 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 80 | 84.6 | |
| Jan 24, 2025 | @ South Carolina | L | 56 | 68.2 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | W | 64 | 84.9 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | W | 107 | 81.9 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 81 | 81.3 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 71 | 81.9 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vsTennessee | W | 82 | 84.0 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 58 | 68.2 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vs Georgia | W | 79 | 84.1 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 65 | 76.2 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 85 | 76.5 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | 77 | 74.5 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsFlorida (neutral) | W | 101 | 84.8 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsTexas (neutral) | L | 49 | 70.0 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | vs San Diego State | W | 103 | 85.9 | |
| Mar 24, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 101 | 87.1 | |
| Mar 28, 2025 | vs NC State (neutral) | W | 80 | 78.8 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | vs UCLA (neutral) | L | 65 | 72.3 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Houston Christian | W | 108 | 103.5 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs SE Louisiana | W | 115 | 109.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 118 | 90.9 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 117 | 97.3 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | @ Tulane | W | 101 | 96.6 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Alcorn State | W | 112 | 99.1 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Marist (neutral) | W | 113 | 103.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Washington State (neutral) | W | 112 | 100.8 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 93 | 79.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ LSU New Orleans | W | 126 | 113.1 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech (neutral) | W | 87 | 94.4 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Morgan State | W | 91 | 109.5 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs UT Arlington | W | 110 | 100.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs Alabama State | W | 109 | 104.8 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsKentucky | L | 78 | 85.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @Vanderbilt | L | 61 | 89.9 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @Georgia | W | 80 | 87.3 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsTexas | W | 70 | 79.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Oklahoma | W | 91 | 90.0 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @Texas A&M | W | 98 | 88.8 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | vsFlorida | W | 89 | 92.6 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsArkansas | W | 92 | 102.2 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsAlabama | W | 103 | 85.8 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Texas | L | 64 | 77.4 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Auburn | W | 77 | 87.0 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | L | 72 | 81.3 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @Ole Miss | W | 78 | 85.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsMissouri | W | 108 | 100.6 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsTennessee | W | 89 | 92.3 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Mississippi State | W | 72 | 92.5 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsOklahoma (neutral) | W | 112 | 90.1 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina (neutral) | L | 77 | 79.7 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Jacksonville | W | 116 | 103.4 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | W | 101 | 86.3 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vsDuke (neutral) | L | 85 | 81.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.3 in 2024-25, plus 1.3 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.