Lafayette’s points allowed at home and away
, ,
Through Lafayette’s game on Mar 9, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Lafayette was 5.9 points over at home and 4.2 points under away in 2025-26, 12 games against 18. The plain averages are 65.8 and 61.0, a difference of 4.8. Expected was 5.4 points lower at home than away.
Lafayette’s +10.2 at home vs away over expected ranks 3rd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26 through Mar 9.
points allowed a game over expected
at home
+5.9
away
−4.2
-20020
A +10.2 difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
65.8
61.0
6080
A +4.8 difference in points allowed at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Villanova | L | 70 | 82.2 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Rider | L | 65 | 54.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Le Moyne | L | 82 | 53.6 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Saint Peter's | W | 58 | 51.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ Saint Francis | W | 55 | 58.1 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Wagner | W | 53 | 55.2 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 59 | 68.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ NJIT | L | 71 | 71.3 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Fairleigh Dickinson | L | 69 | 66.0 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Marist | L | 79 | 59.2 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Rutgers | L | 54 | 69.4 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ Colgate | L | 63 | 58.3 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Loyola Maryland | W | 52 | 57.6 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ Boston University | W | 64 | 62.6 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Navy | L | 97 | 69.0 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ Bucknell | W | 49 | 56.6 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ Holy Cross | L | 70 | 66.5 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vsBoston University | L | 66 | 59.7 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Lehigh | L | 62 | 72.2 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vsBucknell | W | 56 | 53.4 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs American University | L | 70 | 57.7 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @Navy | L | 62 | 74.1 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vs Army | L | 62 | 65.8 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | @Loyola Maryland | L | 65 | 59.4 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsLehigh | W | 59 | 69.7 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsHoly Cross | L | 53 | 64.8 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @American University | W | 41 | 62.3 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Army | L | 61 | 68.6 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsColgate | W | 55 | 56.1 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | @Army | L | 65 | 68.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.