Illinois’ 3-pointers made at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Illinois was NaN 3-pointers made over at home and 1.5 3-pointers made over away over its last 60 games, 29 games against 24. The plain averages are 5.4 and 7.0, a difference of 1.6. Both NCAA tournament games were away.
Illinois’ NaN at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
3-pointers made a game over expected
at home
NaN
away
+1.5
A NaN difference in 3-pointers made over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
5.4
7.0
0510
A −1.6 difference in 3-pointers made at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3-pointers made | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024 | vs Kentucky (neutral) | L | 1 | 4.9 | |
| Dec 2, 2024 | @ Canisius | W | 2 | 5.5 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ Ohio State | L | 5 | 5.2 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | vs Bradley | W | 2 | 5.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Southern Indiana | W | 7 | 7.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Southern | W | 5 | 5.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Oregon | W | 4 | 5.8 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 8 | 5.9 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 4 | 6.3 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | @ Indiana | W | 6 | 4.5 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs Michigan State | L | 0 | 5.6 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @ Northwestern | W | 6 | 6.3 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 8 | 6.7 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 8 | 6.2 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 10 | 5.7 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vsNorthwestern | W | 6 | 6.6 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 11 | 5.7 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 7 | 6.8 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | vs Nebraska | W | 6 | 6.4 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 6 | 4.7 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @ USC | L | 7 | 4.0 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vs Michigan | L | 8 | 5.4 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsNebraska (neutral) | L | 5 | 6.3 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | vs Creighton (neutral) | W | 6 | 4.2 | |
| Mar 24, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 5 | 3.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Southeast Missouri State | W | 4 | 6.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Illinois State | W | 3 | 6.0 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ Oregon State | L | 8 | 5.8 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Murray State | W | 6 | 5.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 9 | 6.6 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 7 | 8.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Le Moyne | W | 4 | 8.0 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Bellarmine | W | 3 | 9.2 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsIndiana | W | 4 | 5.0 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 4 | 7.9 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs North Texas | W | 11 | 5.5 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Jackson State | W | 3 | 6.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @Purdue | W | 6 | 6.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsMaryland | W | 5 | 6.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @Michigan State | L | 10 | 5.6 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsOhio State | L | 2 | 6.4 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @Penn State | W | 11 | 6.8 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 9 | 4.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsNorthwestern | W | 5 | 6.5 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Nebraska | L | 4 | 4.8 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vsUCLA | L | 7 | 4.8 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 4 | 4.1 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @Oregon | L | 4 | 5.3 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsUSC | L | 2 | 4.5 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsWisconsin | W | 11 | 6.3 | |
| Feb 17, 2026 | vsRutgers | W | 8 | 6.5 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Northwestern | W | 12 | 5.8 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @Iowa | L | 11 | 5.7 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsMinnesota | L | 10 | 5.8 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsWisconsin (neutral) | W | 2 | 6.7 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsMichigan State (neutral) | W | 6 | 5.9 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsIowa (neutral) | L | 5 | 6.1 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 4 | 5.4 | |
| Mar 23, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 3 | 6.0 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs Detroit Mercy | W | 5 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 in 2024-25, plus 0.1 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% in 2024-25, 86% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.