Grand Canyon’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Grand Canyon was 5.4 points under at home and 4.3 points over away in 2025-26, 14 games against 14. The plain averages are 62.5 and 66.9, a difference of 4.4. Expected was 5.3 points higher at home than away.
Grand Canyon’s −9.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 361st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
points a game over expected
at home
−5.4
away
+4.3
-1001020
A −9.7 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
62.5
66.9
50607080
A −4.4 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ South Carolina | L | 54 | 47.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Idaho State | L | 55 | 65.7 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 66 | 56.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ UC Santa Barbara | L | 70 | 62.6 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs SMU | W | 76 | 72.0 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs California (neutral) | L | 63 | 59.5 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs UTSA (neutral) | L | 64 | 58.3 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Gonzaga | L | 58 | 63.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Saint Mary's | L | 54 | 63.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Santa Clara | L | 72 | 72.6 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | 60 | 67.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ San José State | W | 79 | 72.8 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Colorado State | L | 47 | 60.4 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Boise State | W | 87 | 65.7 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 69 | 61.2 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 71 | 65.6 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vs Nevada | W | 65 | 66.8 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ New Mexico | W | 75 | 62.2 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @Colorado State | L | 50 | 57.5 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsBoise State | L | 65 | 69.8 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ Utah State | W | 86 | 69.5 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 57 | 66.5 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vsSan Diego State | W | 57 | 64.7 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @ Air Force | L | 64 | 65.8 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @UNLV | L | 65 | 64.0 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 68 | 65.3 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsUtah State | W | 63 | 73.7 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @Fresno State | W | 57 | 63.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsSan José State | W | 65 | 76.3 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @Wyoming | L | 57 | 63.8 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsUtah State (neutral) | W | 75 | 71.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsColorado State (neutral) | L | 59 | 58.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.