Duke’s 3-point attempts at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Duke was NaN 3-point attempts over at home and 1.9 3-point attempts under away over its last 60 games, 26 games against 20. The plain averages are 21.2 and 16.2, a difference of 5.1. All 4 NCAA tournament games were at home.
Duke’s NaN at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
3-point attempts a game over expected
at home
NaN
away
−1.9
A NaN difference in 3-point attempts over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
21.2
16.2
102030
A +5.1 difference in 3-point attempts at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3-point attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 22 | 22.5 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @ North Carolina | L | 17 | 17.0 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ Virginia | W | 24 | 21.5 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs California | W | 21 | 14.5 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 17 | 17.7 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @ SMU | W | 21 | 19.7 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 12 | 16.4 | |
| Feb 3, 2025 | @ NC State | L | 24 | 20.0 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vs Clemson | W | 23 | 15.4 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vs Miami | W | 22 | 23.3 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | W | 9 | 17.0 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 9 | 17.3 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | 13 | 16.1 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 15 | 18.7 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina | W | 23 | 17.0 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 15 | 16.0 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsLouisville (neutral) | W | 18 | 15.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsNotre Dame (neutral) | W | 25 | 16.6 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsNC State (neutral) | W | 17 | 20.5 | |
| Mar 21, 2025 | vs Lehigh | W | 29 | 17.3 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vs Oregon | W | 17 | 17.4 | |
| Mar 28, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina (neutral) | W | 24 | 16.8 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | L | 17 | 16.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Baylor (neutral) | L | 19 | 19.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Holy Cross | W | 23 | 17.8 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Norfolk State | W | 20 | 21.3 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | 12 | 15.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 21 | 20.8 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ South Florida | L | 17 | 18.5 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina (neutral) | L | 20 | 20.3 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs UCLA (neutral) | L | 22 | 18.3 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs LSU | L | 24 | 24.3 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 14 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs South Dakota State | W | 29 | 22.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Belmont | W | 21 | 20.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @Syracuse | W | 14 | 15.7 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 24 | 20.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsNotre Dame | W | 18 | 15.7 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @California | W | 16 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @Stanford | W | 13 | 17.2 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsVirginia | W | 11 | 19.0 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 24 | 20.0 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | W | 17 | 24.3 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @Miami | W | 13 | 21.1 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsWake Forest | W | 18 | 23.1 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Louisville | W | 17 | 18.6 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsSMU | W | 26 | 18.7 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina | W | 20 | 18.1 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsNC State | W | 21 | 21.8 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Clemson | L | 11 | 16.0 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 30 | 21.4 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @North Carolina | L | 18 | 17.9 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsClemson (neutral) | W | 17 | 15.9 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsNotre Dame (neutral) | W | 19 | 15.4 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsLouisville (neutral) | W | 20 | 18.6 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Charleston | W | 17 | 21.3 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsBaylor | W | 22 | 19.6 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vsLSU (neutral) | W | 26 | 24.0 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | vsUCLA (neutral) | L | 13 | 18.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs Green Bay | W | 23 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 in 2024-25, plus 0.2 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 92% in 2024-25, 93% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.