Boise State’s points of margin at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 6.0 points over at home and 7.7 points under away over its last 60 games, 26 games against 20. The plain averages are 14.1 and -8.2, a difference of 22.3.
Boise State’s +13.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points of margin a game over expected
at home
+6.0
away
−7.7
-2002040
A +13.7 difference in points of margin over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
14.1
-8.2
050
A +22.3 difference in points of margin at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs Weber State | W | 50 | 8.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Illinois State (neutral) | W | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | -35 | -28.1 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs Butler (neutral) | L | -6 | -2.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs Utah Tech | W | 34 | 21.0 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs San Diego | W | 17 | 12.6 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs Furman (neutral) | W | 9 | 10.4 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs North Dakota State (neutral) | L | -4 | -0.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ San Diego State | L | -15 | -4.6 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 11 | 5.6 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | -4 | -10.8 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ Utah State | W | 5 | 11.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | -6 | 2.4 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | vs San José State | W | 29 | 14.3 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 8 | 9.4 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ Wyoming | L | -34 | -7.9 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | @Nevada | L | -8 | 5.0 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vs Colorado State | L | -6 | -1.8 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | -5 | -1.1 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsFresno State | L | -4 | 7.8 | |
| Feb 18, 2025 | vsWyoming | W | 5 | -5.1 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | @UNLV | L | -30 | -14.6 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @Air Force | L | -7 | 1.3 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsNevada (neutral) | W | 6 | 6.7 | |
| Mar 10, 2025 | vsUNLV (neutral) | L | -10 | -13.2 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vsEEastern Oregon | W | 8 | — | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs San Francisco | W | 15 | 5.5 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs UC Davis | W | 14 | 6.5 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | -30 | -16.4 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Seattle U | W | 21 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs UC Riverside | W | 11 | 12.4 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs North Dakota (neutral) | W | 20 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Tulane (neutral) | W | 5 | 4.4 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs California Baptist | W | 2 | 2.9 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ Utah | L | -33 | -11.0 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Southern Utah | W | 15 | 8.9 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | @New Mexico | L | -7 | -3.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @San Diego State | L | -29 | -7.4 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vsNevada | W | 12 | 11.1 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Grand Canyon | L | -11 | 3.5 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @Air Force | W | 11 | 4.2 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsColorado State | W | 3 | -4.6 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vsWyoming | W | 37 | 10.4 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Utah State | W | 16 | 11.4 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vsFresno State | W | 8 | 6.2 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Grand Canyon | W | 10 | -3.4 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsSan José State | W | 34 | 20.6 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @Nevada | W | 9 | 5.8 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | W | 28 | -0.2 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | @Fresno State | L | -6 | 1.6 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Wyoming | W | 2 | 7.1 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsAir Force | W | 8 | 9.9 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @San José State | W | 23 | 15.7 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vsSan Diego State | L | -2 | -3.6 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsUtah State | W | 16 | 16.9 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @UNLV | L | -29 | -5.7 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsSan José State (neutral) | W | 17 | 18.9 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsNew Mexico (neutral) | W | 1 | -1.2 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | vsAir Force (neutral) | L | -2 | 7.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsBBushnell | W | 36 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.7 in 2024-25, plus 2.7 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% in 2024-25, 97% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Oregon, Bushnell have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.