Belmont’s turnovers in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through Belmont’s game on Mar 13, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Belmont was 0.4 turnovers over in a conference game and 1.5 turnovers under in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 39 games against 21. The plain averages are 12.7 and 12.9, a difference of 0.2. Expected was 2.0 turnovers lower in a conference game than in a nonconference game. All 5 ranked opponents were in a nonconference game.
Belmont’s +1.8 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 3rd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 13, 2026.
turnovers a game over expected
A +1.8 difference in turnovers over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −0.2 difference in turnovers in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2024 | @ Duke | L | 20 | 18.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Michigan (neutral) | L | 14 | 15.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Davidson (neutral) | W | 12 | 13.1 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ Lipscomb | W | 13 | 11.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 11 | 13.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Mississippi State (neutral) | L | 12 | 15.6 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | @ Kentucky | L | 14 | 12.3 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs Bradley | W | 15 | 10.4 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ Missouri State | L | 15 | 14.6 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ Southern Illinois | W | 17 | 12.0 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs Valparaiso | W | 18 | 15.5 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | @ Drake | W | 10 | 12.1 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ Northern Iowa | W | 15 | 14.8 | |
| Jan 24, 2025 | vs Evansville | W | 12 | 12.7 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vs Indiana State | W | 15 | 12.1 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Murray State | W | 13 | 14.1 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | @ UIC | W | 13 | 13.3 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | vsNorthern Iowa | L | 13 | 14.4 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsDrake | L | 11 | 11.5 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | @ Illinois State | L | 12 | 10.8 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @Murray State | L | 14 | 14.5 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vsSouthern Illinois | W | 13 | 11.7 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsMissouri State | W | 13 | 14.2 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | @Indiana State | W | 11 | 12.9 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @Evansville | W | 15 | 13.0 | |
| Mar 20, 2025 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 8 | 13.3 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vs Northern Arizona | W | 9 | 11.6 | |
| Mar 31, 2025 | vs Villanova (neutral) | W | 9 | 13.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 11 | 16.2 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Brown | W | 11 | 13.3 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 18 | 17.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ Dayton | W | 11 | 11.3 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vsLipscomb | W | 11 | 11.4 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 18 | 18.6 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs McNeese (neutral) | L | 17 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @Middle Tennessee | W | 13 | 12.9 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Princeton | L | 15 | 14.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsKentucky | L | 10 | 12.0 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vsEvansville | W | 16 | 11.8 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsDuke | L | 13 | 15.4 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @Southern Illinois | W | 12 | 12.9 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vsBradley | W | 14 | 11.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsIllinois State | W | 11 | 11.2 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vsDrake | W | 14 | 9.8 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsNorthern Iowa | W | 10 | 12.1 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @Indiana State | W | 9 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Murray State | L | 14 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @Evansville | W | 13 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsMurray State | L | 8 | 11.6 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Drake | W | 12 | 10.5 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Northern Iowa | W | 12 | 12.5 | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | vsUIC | W | 10 | 11.1 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsValparaiso | W | 13 | 10.4 | |
| Feb 20, 2026 | @Illinois State | L | 6 | 12.1 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Bradley | L | 15 | 11.5 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsIndiana State | W | 14 | 11.7 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | vsSouthern Illinois | W | 12 | 12.4 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @Valparaiso | W | 11 | 11.1 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @UIC | W | 12 | 11.5 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsEvansville (neutral) | L | 11 | 12.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 in 2024-25, minus 0.3 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% in 2024-25, 90% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.