Naomi Jones’ points in the first half of the season and in the second half of the season
, ,
Against her share of what her opponents usually allowed forwards, Naomi Jones was 1.6 points over in the first half of the season and 2.6 points over in the second half of the season in 2026-27, 1 game against 1. The plain averages are 5.0 and 6.0, a difference of 1.0.
One game in the first half of the season is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
in the first half of the season
+1.6
in the second half of the season
+2.6
012
plain
5.0
6.0
55.56
The games
in the first half of the seasonin the second half of the season
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs Queens University | W | 5 | 3.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs LSU New Orleans | W | 6 | 3.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 3.8 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to her share of her team’s forwards’ points in her games, 10%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.